Kristi Raik’s article “The Baltic states and security in the Baltic Sea region: Dark clouds in blue sky” has been published in the BSR Policy Briefing series of Centrum Balticum.
The three Baltic states can feel more secure today than ever before. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are firmly integrated into European and transatlantic structures, most importantly through their membership in NATO and the EU. Since 2014, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has weakened the regional security situation, but has also led to a united response of the EU and stronger presence of NATO, which increases stability and predictability. However, there are dark clouds in the sky. First and foremost, there is a new level of uncertainty about the commitment of the US to European security and the rules-based international order. Second, Europe is stepping up its efforts in the field of security and defence, but the process is slow and there is no shared vision of its goals and priorities. Third, Russia continues to pursue stronger influence in its nearby regions and tries to deepen political divisions within the EU and NATO. This report looks at each of the dark clouds and discusses the positions of the Baltic states in the broader regional security framework. It argues that the most difficult question the Baltic states are facing is how to prepare for a possible withdrawal of the US without making it more likely to happen.
You can download the article here: http://www.centrumbalticum.org/uutishuone/tietopankki/tietopankki/bsr_policy_briefing_9_2019.5975.news